By Directful · February 20, 2026 · 5 min read
Download the full 2026 Hotel Industry Forecast Infographic
2026 U.S. Hotel Industry
Forecast at a Glance
Key metrics, quarterly outlook, World Cup impact & long-term projections
U.S. Inbound
International inbound expected to rebound, though levels remain below 2019. World Cup contributes 1.1% of this growth.
U.S. Outbound
Continued rise in outbound travel, following +4.7% growth in 2025. Americans traveling abroad at elevated rates.
The first STR and Tourism Economics 2026 US hotel industry forecast is here — and after a historically rough 2025, the numbers tell a complicated story for independent hoteliers.
RevPAR is projected to grow just +0.6% this year. That’s technically positive, but let’s put it in context: 2025 saw a −0.3% RevPAR decline, the first non-recessionary drop ever recorded in U.S. hotel history. So “up 0.6%” really means “barely recovering from unprecedented territory.”
We broke down the full forecast into a visual snapshot so you can brief your team in two minutes instead of twenty. Here’s what stood out to us — and what it means for your direct booking strategy.
RevPAR, ADR, and demand: the headline numbers
Demand is expected to rebound modestly at +0.4% after dipping half a percent last year. ADR growth was revised up slightly to +1.0%, which will be the primary driver behind that 0.6% RevPAR figure. Supply growth, meanwhile, was pulled back to just +0.7% — the pipeline includes nearly 767,000 rooms, but only 19% are actually under construction.
Translation: there won’t be a flood of new hotel inventory competing for guests. That’s a small tailwind for existing properties. Hotel conversion activity was at its highest since 2016 in 2025, with nearly 1,900 hotels converting — a signal that the industry is adapting through repositioning rather than new builds.
The year is back-loaded: quarterly outlook
If you’re feeling the squeeze right now, you’re not imagining it. Q1 2026 is still projected to decline slightly at −0.2%, with consumer bifurcation firmly in place — upper-end scales are recovering first, while select-service and economy segments remain flat to negative on rate.
The real improvement is expected in the second half of the year. Two factors help: natural disaster calendar comps from 2024’s hurricane displacement finally rolling off, and a better holiday calendar composition compared to 2025.
Group business tells a similar story. Demand fell 1.8% in 2025 but was offset by 4.0% ADR growth. Shorter booking windows persist, and most group volume is expected to land in H2 2026.
The World Cup factor: June-July RevPAR lift
The biggest wildcard is the FIFA World Cup, hosted across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico this summer. STR projects a +0.4% full-year RevPAR lift from the tournament alone, concentrated in June and July. Without the World Cup, RevPAR growth would be just 0.2% — so the event accounts for the majority of the industry’s improvement.
Host markets are expected to see RevPAR gains of 3.8% for the year and 12.7% during June-July match dates. International inbound travel is forecast to rebound 3.7% overall, with 1.1 percentage points attributed directly to World Cup demand. Teams like France, Brazil, Argentina, and Portugal are expected to be the largest demand generators.
But there are risks. Price sensitivity among domestic travelers, expanded immigration enforcement, and broader geopolitical tensions could dampen the international inbound upside.
What this means for your direct booking strategy
Here’s the part that doesn’t show up in the STR forecast: in a flat-growth environment, the hotels that win aren’t the ones waiting for macro tailwinds. They’re the ones capturing more value from the guests they already have.
When RevPAR growth is under 1%, every percentage point of OTA commission you eliminate goes straight to your bottom line. A property paying $150,000 in annual OTA commissions doesn’t need RevPAR to grow — it needs to convert those OTA guests into direct bookers.
Consider the math: OTAs charge between 15-25% per booking. If even 20% of your OTA guests rebook directly, that’s tens of thousands in recovered revenue without a single new guest walking through the door. Hotels using AI-powered guest re-engagement channels like SMS — which has a 98% open rate compared to email’s 20% — are seeing exactly these results.
That’s the opportunity hiding inside a “flat” year. And it’s exactly what we help hotels do at Directful.
The full 2026 hotel forecast infographic
We turned the complete STR/Tourism Economics forecast into a single-page infographic covering quarterly RevPAR projections, supply dynamics, World Cup impact, international travel trends, and the long-term outlook through 2028.
Long-term hotel industry outlook: 2027-2028
Looking beyond 2026, the trajectory is modestly positive but not exciting. RevPAR is forecast at +1.4% for 2027 and +2.0% for 2028. ADR remains the primary growth driver, though rate growth is expected to stay below inflation in both years.
The takeaway: the industry is in a “slow grind” recovery, not a V-shaped rebound. Hotels that invest now in reducing OTA dependency and building direct guest relationships will have a structural advantage as growth gradually returns.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the RevPAR forecast for U.S. hotels in 2026?
STR and Tourism Economics project full-year RevPAR growth of +0.6% for 2026, a 10 basis point upward revision from the November 2025 forecast. This follows a −0.3% decline in 2025, which was the first non-recessionary RevPAR drop ever recorded in the U.S. hotel industry. ADR growth is projected at +1.0% and demand at +0.4%.
How will the 2026 FIFA World Cup affect U.S. hotel performance?
The World Cup is forecast to contribute a +0.4% full-year RevPAR lift, concentrated in June and July. Host markets could see RevPAR gains of 3.8% for the year and 12.7% during June-July match dates. Without the World Cup boost, U.S. RevPAR growth would be just 0.2%. The lift is primarily rate-driven, with advanced match stages commanding higher ADR.
What is the hotel supply outlook for 2026?
Supply growth was revised down to +0.7% from +0.9%. While the pipeline includes a near-record 767,000 rooms, only 19% are under construction. Constrained supply growth is expected to continue for the next several years due to the lag between financing, construction, and opening. Hotel conversion activity in 2025 was the highest since 2016.
How can independent hotels reduce OTA dependency in a flat-growth year?
In a low-growth environment, reducing OTA commission fees (typically 15-25%) has a direct bottom-line impact. Hotels can convert OTA guests to direct bookers through post-stay re-engagement using channels like SMS marketing, which has a 98% open rate compared to email’s 20%. Properties using AI-powered guest re-engagement platforms like Directful are recovering $75K–$142K in annual direct revenue.
What are the biggest risks for U.S. hotels in 2026?
The primary headwinds include broad economic uncertainty, geopolitical instability, government cutbacks, and rising domestic tensions — the same pressures that drove the 2025 RevPAR decline. Additionally, consumer bifurcation means select-service and economy hotels face more pressure than upper-end segments. World Cup-related risks include price sensitivity and reduced international inbound due to immigration enforcement concerns.
Source: STR / Tourism Economics · February 2026 U.S. Hotel Forecast Assumptions
Directful helps independent hotels convert OTA guests into direct bookers using AI-powered SMS marketing. If you’re looking to reduce OTA dependency in a flat-growth year, book a 15-minute demo to see how properties like yours are recovering $75K–$142K in direct revenue.
Prepared by Directful · The Direct Booking Authority
Source: STR / Tourism Economics · February 2026 U.S. Hotel Forecast Assumptions
